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Market Insights for the Serious Options Trader

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Oil Controlling The Market!

Good volume on NASDAQ. August
export/import prices to be released. Oil
prices controlling movement of the market.
Keep those exit strategies in mind. Get the

latest at TradingTrainer.com.

Hey trading team,

This is A.J. on Thursday, September 8th with your
Trading Trainer web log. We are your home of
market insights for the serious option trader.
This web log will cover the events in the market
from today as well as prepare you for watching the
market tomorrow.

Today was quite the volatile day for the NASDAQ.
We got a spike up in trading volume for the NASDAQ
thanks to some heavy trading happening for Sirus
and Intel. On the NYSE side of the house, for the
most part, action was subdued. Oil prices bounced
around. What's neat to point out is that when any
one commodity is stretched to the limit, like oil
is right now, it becomes the predominate influence
on the other markets like our stock market. Oil
is up, stocks drop. Oil is down, stock gain. You
know when a commodity is at the highest price the
market can bear, you can see this effect. As for
today, I watched Alcon demonstrate to me the price
and volume movement I wanted to see a couple of
days ago. I opened a long position with Alcon.

Tomorrow, Friday, September 9th at 8:30 am EDT,
export prices for August minus agriculture and
import prices for August minus oil will be
released. This may or may not spur some inflation
fears. We'll have to see. Watching the long bond
yield will give you a clue.

My EOG resources October 60 calls closed higher at
$8.40 an option. My current return on my
invested capital is 35%. I've been in that trade
for 48 days. My Pacificare Health Systems November
75 calls closed higher at $4.50 an option. My
current return on my invested capital is 55% after
being in the trade for 48 days. My Quicksilver
September 40 Puts closed higher at $0.70 an
option. I'm in the red with a return on my
invested capital of -56% after being in the trade
for 22 days. My Tenaris October 105 Calls closed
higher at $15.60 an option. I'm in the black with
a return on my invested capital of 97% after 13
days in the trade. And, today I opened new long
positions by buying the Alcon November 120 Calls.
I bought them today at $6.30 and option. They
closed higher at $7.10 and option. I'm in the
black with a return on invested capital of 13%
after just being in the trade for a few hours.

The move I made by holding off on exiting my
Tenaris trades was a good one. Although the drop
in supplies of oil was less than expected, the
fear that oil recovery in the gulf has slowed,
caused the commodity price to run up and with that
my Tenaris stock ran up as well.

Here is my plan for tomorrow. I'll be setting my
stop loss alerts for EOG resources, Pacificare
Health Systems, and Alcon at 20%, 40% and break
even, respectively, for my return on invested
capital. For Tenaris I'm going to once again
switch exit strategies to a trailing stop loss
strategy and I will begin with setting the stop
loss at 15% below the current price. I'll be
setting all these stop loss alerts after amateur
hour and they will all be in the form of pop up
alerts as well as email alerts going to my inbox
and cell phone. And, they will be triggered upon
the bid price of the option going below the
associated stop level. Also, for all of these
positions I'll be watching where stock price is
relative to the 7 day moving average. A cross
under is a secondary alert that cues me to think
about exiting.

Okay, team. I'm done.

Till tomorrow, happy market watching, trading
and money making. Trading Trainer is here
helping you create your dream lifestyle.

Best regards always,
A.J.

Click on the below play button to hear
the blog as an audio from A.J. himself!


About the Author
A.J. Brown is a full time options trader, author,
speaker and consultant. Watch him review stock
charts on video each day, listen to his audio
newsletter where he leads you by the hand
through the end-to-end process of successful
options traders and get tips and tested strategies
proven to boost your return on your invested
capital by massive amounts in his membership
site at TradingTrainer.com today.

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